Prépublication
· 2026 arXiv
EN
Earth system models (ESMs) have grown tremendously in realism, yet key uncertainties persist in the climate response to greenhouse-gas forcing, particularly due to cloud radiative feedbacks. In addition, their software architecture was not designed for acceler...
Pierre Gentine, Dhruv Balwada et al.
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Prépublication
· 2026 arXiv
EN
Near the ocean surface, tropical cyclone winds change rapidly with height, but direct measurements are limited because aircraft dropsondes provide only sparse and irregular observations. Continuous wind profiles are important for understanding hurricane bounda...
Jian Ma, Yilin Yang et al.
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Prépublication
· 2026 arXiv
EN
Skillful prediction of biomass-burning activity several days in advance is important for air-quality forecasting and aerosol prediction. Two operational constraints motivate this work. First, the GBBEPx satellite fire radiative power (FRP) product used to init...
Li Zhang, Jun Wang et al.
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Prépublication
· 2026 arXiv
EN
Accurate precipitation estimation at fine spatial scales is critical for hydrology, agriculture, and climate studies. Infrared brightness temperatures from geostationary satellites offer excellent temporal coverage over continental-scale domains. However, beca...
Matthieu Meignin, Cécile Mallet et al.
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Prépublication
· 2026 arXiv
EN
Deep learning has made rapid advances in weather forecasting: autoregressive models trained on atmospheric reanalyses now rival dynamical models across nowcasting, medium-range, and subseasonal-to-seasonal lead times, producing well-calibrated ensemble forecas...
Tom Beucler, J. David Neelin et al.
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Prépublication
· 2026 arXiv
EN
Atmospheric warming raises evaporative demand, but actual evapotranspiration (ETa) may track demand or decouple under water limitation. Here, we quantified demand-tracking ability from regression slopes relating deseasonalized ETa and reference evapotranspirat...
Yan Zhang, Veronica J. Berrocal et al.
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Prépublication
· 2026 arXiv
EN
Dissolved oxygen is important for the ocean's ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles. Yet, Earth System Models (ESMs) vary in their simulations of the present-day and future ocean oxygen inventory. To narrow down the uncertainty in estimates of ocean oxygen cont...
Linus Vogt, Laure Zanna
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Prépublication
· 2026 arXiv
EN
The production of adipic acid generates nitrous oxide as a by-product, which, if emitted, very effectively warms the climate and depletes the stratospheric ozone layer. There exists cost-effective technology to mitigate these nitrous oxide emissions from adipi...
Nicholas Balasus, Daniel H. Cusworth
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Prépublication
· 2026 arXiv
EN
Data assimilation (DA) is the process of combining forecasts from a model with observations in order to optimally estimate the state of a system. This is critical for chaotic systems, such as the atmosphere, since if observations are not continually assimilate...
Eviatar Bach
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Prépublication
· 2026 arXiv
EN
Analytical greenhouse models traditionally rely on the gray approximation, simplifying radiative transfer but treating optical depth as an unconstrained parameter that yields unrealistic surface temperatures. We derive an exact, closed-form solution directly f...
Carmine Serio
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Prépublication
· 2026 arXiv
EN
We present ClimateBench v2, a standardized protocol for evaluating climate models on diagnostics expected to be informative for their skill in projecting mid-century regional temperature and precipitation changes. The protocol is designed to evaluate any physi...
Duncan Watson-Parris, Willa Tobin et al.
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Prépublication
· 2026 arXiv
EN
The Gálvez Davison Index (GDI) is a thermodynamic diagnostic designed to summarize convective favorability in the tropical regions, yet its transferability across complex terrain and heterogeneous hydroclimates remains uncertain. Here we assess the climatologi...
Mauricio López-Reyes, Carlos Calvo-Sancho et al.
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